Tomorrow is like Christmas.
No, no! Tomorrow is like BIGGER than Christmas!
It's like for us half-Jew Christians where we get to celebrate Hanukah AND Christmas in the same month! And like for me, when it's followed the very next week by my birthday!
Tomorrow is Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). At 10am PST (watch here) good ol' save-the-company, save-the-world (too much?) Steve Jobs will take the Mascone Center stage in downtown SF and unveil Apple's latest creations. Sure he'll start by toting his company's latest achievements: the success of the iPhone OS platform whose US market dominance triples that of Apple's newest foe Google and that company's Android OS; he'll revel in the "magical revolution" that is the iPad, bragging about its flying off a store shelf every 3 seconds and already amassing a sales volume upwards of 2 million units since its launch just over a month ago. He'll claim that the App Store's 150,000+ apps are unmatched and unrivaled by any competitor and he'll transition into showing off iPhone OS 4, Apple's latest iteration of the world's proven most elegant mobile OS.
In all honesty, this will all be pretty boring. We already know Apple has a huge marketshare and a beautiful OS that is more seamlessly integrated into its hardware and wonderfully efficient than any yet produced by a competitor. We also already know what the new OS entails, in fact. Folders in which to compile similar apps thus sparing screen real estate; an improved Mail application that integrates multiple inboxes; the addition of iBooks to the mobile OS as seen already in the iPad; video chat(!), better Facebook integration; and of course, the most user-requested feature: Multitasking. No longer will checking the weather app or sending a quick email, force the user to lose his or her place in Tap Tap Revolution or an HTML 5-based online video. Nope, the iPhone OS will now finally do what many competitors have been doing for some time. This, indeed, is good news. Only time will tell if Apple has really nailed it with its implementation of said multitasking and the resulting havoc(?) on battery life (Apple's previous excuse for not including this feature), but guesses indicate that Apple hasn't rushed this to the OS for good reason. After three years of mobile phone software development, Apple has likely created what it always creates: an elegant user-friendly solution that just plain works.
At this point about 30 minutes will probably have elapsed. Some random CEO or software developer from Microsoft (Bing comes to the iPhone, yay?!) or EA Sports etc. will have demoed his latest and greatest work. The audience will no doubt be quietly restless, sitting, hearts palpating, mouths salivating in anticipation of the real news of the day. Steve will retake the stage to do what Steve does best: build enthusiasm, excitement, and confidence in his company and its products only to then release something even better to the wonderment of all. Without knowing why or how, the masses will collect at Apple Stores around the world, their mouth's gaping, their pupils dilated, and their wallets drawn. New records will be established as "quickest to one million sales" monikers are laid forth upon Apple's newest products. Stock prices will fall and then quickly rise again. Pundits will blindly laud Steve's creations while a vocal minority will denounce Apple's arrogance for leaving out x or y feature. And yet, in a matter or days, weeks or months, all will be forgotten and Apple will again be in the lead, the company others strive to imitate, emulate, and replicate.
So, what exactly will come out of Steve's pocket tomorrow? Certainly the fourth generation iPhone. We've all seen it. A prototype model is illustrated above and the final version is sure to closely resemble this model. This is probably the world's most famous phone. It was lost by an Apple employee in a drunken haze at a San Jose, CA bar months ago only to be found by a questionably ethical young man. In short time it was pawned for upwards of 5K to the tech blog Gizmodo which ran with the story of the year's most hotly anticipated new phone (background story here). Name calling and legal drama ensued with Apple accusing Gizmodo editors of theft, extortion, and a blatant disrespect for the world's most secretive company's privacy. The case is still pending in California courts.
But what of this new phone? Thinner, lighter, squarer. Higher resolution screen, higher quality camera (now with an LED flash for improving the iPhone's notoriously bad ability to take pictures in low light), a second front-facing camera for video chatting, a faster processor and more memory. It all sounds pretty good, and Apple is sure to sell millions; but the real question regarding this phone is this: on which service can we use it? And while WWDC may reveal a MacBookAir update or a new AppleTV to compete with Google's enticing entry into that field, or while WWDC may reveal Safari 5 and introduce a free version of Mobile Me, the real news tomorrow will be when can I use the world's best phone on any network other than the world's worst?
As a reader of blogs, all indications I've seen were that this would be the year. After three years of dishearteningly bad service with ATT, it finally seemed that Apple was going to make the move to Verizon this summer with the introduction of this new phone. But just last week a Verizon representation squashed all notions of such hopes. The WSJ still may think a Verizon iPhone is coming this fall, but it probably won't be announced tomorrow and that's actually why, despite all the glitz and glamour that is a Stevenote, tomorrow will be a disappointment. We already know all of the tricks up Steve's sleeve. Tomorrow doesn't seem to be the day for one of his famous "one more thing" announcements. The only golden ticket he has left is a Verizon iPhone and without that announcement tomorrow, everyone goes home disappointed. Tomorrow's Christmas may just be another sack of ATT coal.
More to come tomorrow.
Plus there'll surely be new oil added to the Apple-Google fire (latest, previous) - a post for another time.
10 comments:
Great summary - much appreciated. I too read blogs, but this did a good job of pointing out exactly what I'm worried about: not a lot of surprise slash evolution not revolution. In smart-phone crazed SF, the ATT network is so bogged down by usage that I have to turn off 3G and switch to Edge.
I talked to a developer today while waiting for my plane to come and my 2 day hangover to subside (still waiting). He had heard from those who were using beta versions of OS4 that battery life on 3GS went from "a day at best to upwards of 5 days." If that's the case, that would definitely be a "one more thing" that would cause me to think twice about my jump to Android.
for those of you following along at home, here's well-edited <5minute version of all Steve had to say yesterday
here
anon, good point.
the Lala timing sure seemed appropriate for an update today, but i guess we'll keep waiting. iTunes cloud syncing would be pretty awesome and is a feature they're definitely working on (what do you think that billion dollar server farm in carolina is for?...)
given that we didn't see it yesterday, i predict a september announcement when apple refreshes the ipod line per usual routine.
Curious how an android user interpreted the iPhone4? Read here.
This sums it up pretty well for what I'm thinking right now:
"I can’t see myself using the phone video chat in the immediate future, especially given the Wifi limitation and the fact that I’d only be able to use it with other technophiles initially. And while the iPhone 4′s screen is pretty damn amazing, it isn’t nearly sharp enough to overcome my disdain for AT&T."
So has anyone else noticed how the droid commercials have some fine print about Lucasfilm? Turns out that pudgy bastard George Lucas actually holds a copyright on the word as its first recorded use came in the iconic line from Star Wars IV:
"These aren't the droids you're looking for..."
Mike Arrington, Editor of TechCrunch, just put a figurative bullet through EVO here.
"The battery life is abysmal – MobileCrunch calls it a 'dealbreaker' and I agree."
"If you want an Android phone right now, get a Nexus One. The new iPhone 4, though, is clearly superior."
MLR, i believe i warned of this...
but why go for the nexus one which is already months old and not on the best network? (the very drawback to iPhone 4...). what happened to all the rage about the Droid Incredible on Verizon?
Hour two with Nexus One. So far so good. I have my ATT SIM but I'll probably go to TMO and get the new card sometime tomorrow.
Also for you on-the-fencers, two things
1) beta.Swype.com. New way to type on touchscreens. Badass so far, though has a learning curve for sure. Guiness record for texting speed is held by a Swype employee.
2) I just figured out that I can download directly to my nexus one, something Apple hasn't allowed. I was enjoying Cudi's new song (awesome by the way) on my mac and figured I might as well see if I could click through to the download link on my android to check out what happens. With a quick click on my phone, I had downloaded the song and was listening to it in minutes. Boom.
This may sound trivial but the idea of being able to download anything from the internets makes my phone feel VERY powerful.
Hmm. Ive seen this swipe technology before. Looks pretty awesome actually. I guess it all depends on the quality of the software to autocorrect / slash differentiate between the various words you're trying to type and the ones it thinks you're trying to type.
The iPhone is actually pretty good at that. Part of that is that it's screen is better / more accurate than most competitors and part of that is good autocorrection software.
But swipe looks like a cool alternative.
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